Fact Check: Are Californians Really Turning Red States Blue?
(RightWing.org) – Democrats in deep-red Texas are working hard to flip the dominant Republican state into the biggest battleground state in the US. Built on a hopeful wave of incoming potential voters from California and registering as many native Texans as possible, Democrat activists and party leaders believe the state is trending their way after Beto O’Rourke came closer than expected to beating Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in 2018.
However, several polls released between late 2018 and 2019 suggest that the Californians leaving the state may not be as blue as Texas Democrats think.
Evidence is growing that an exodus is underway in California. The concern among conservatives in Texas, as well as other red states with low taxes and a higher quality of living, is that if too many Liberals move to Texas, it could turn red states purple or even blue.
However, it seems Democrats are counting their chickens before the eggs hatch and it could be a major mistake on their part. In 2018, over 86,000 people from California moved to Texas. However, data from several polls suggest that it’s not California liberals moving to conservative states, but California Conservatives who have had enough with liberal policies are leaving.
According to former Ted Cruz campaign pollster Chris Wilson, there is an interesting phenomenon developing in Texas:
“We’ve done some pretty in-depth look at people who are moving into the state. I’ll give an example — Ted Cruz won by more [in the 2018 midterm election against former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-Texas] with new voters into Texas than he did with voters who had been in Texas for their entire lives… we do find that after three to four elections, as people move in the state, they are highly more likely to be Republican than they are Democrat.”
Several studies suggest Wilson may be on to something. Texas and other red states may not be as vulnerable to a liberal exodus from California as some in the media claim.
- 58% of voters say they want to leave California due to high taxes and 47% because of the political culture — especially among Republican and conservative voters
- 84% of very conservative voters and 77% of somewhat conservative voters said California’s political culture was the main reason to move
- 67% of Democrats describe California as one of the best places to live while only 23% of Republicans agree
- Only 16% of very liberal or 11% of somewhat liberal voters are giving serious consideration to moving from California
- In the 2018 Senate Race between O’Rourke (D) and Cruz (R), voters who moved to Texas favored Cruz by 15% and native Texans supported O’Rourke by only 3%
- Workers moving from San Francisco to Austin, TX, would see an immediate 46% increase in their standard of living
More Conservatives than Liberals appear to be headed for red states. This may cause more national polarization as people group together of like-mindedness. However, it could also reduce the clout of liberal states as they lose population and Congressional seats. California is projected for the first time in its history to lose a Congressional seat after the 2020 census is completed.
By Don Purdum, Freelance Contributor
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